Cox Plate runner guide with tips and predicted finishing order
THE 2016 Cox Plate is what racing fans dream of and never has a betting public been more divided between two of the fancied runners.
Billed very much as a match-race between 2015 Cox Plate champion Winx and Godolphin’s Hartnell, the 2016 Cox Plate has all the theatre of what promises to be the most exciting two minutes in sport.
It’s not just about Winx and Hartnell, however, as punters can find other ways to make money on the Cox Plate. There are many each way options in the field of 10 and we’re looked at every runner and assessed its chances in the big Group one on Saturday.
Punters at William Hill can double down on the Cox Plate and if your horse doesn’t win the race, William Hill will refund your entire stake (up to $50 in bonus bets). That’s incredible value and makes betting on the Cox Plate risk free.
Cox Plate betting guide, odds and tips
1. Happy Trails (10)
Trainer: Paul Beshara
Jockey: Ben Melham
Form: 775×85
Odds: $126
Trainer Paul Beshara is confident the nine-year-old can figure in the finish this Saturday, but we can’t see that happening.
It’s a nine-year-old which has won only one race from eight attempts at Moonee Valley and it finished 7.65 lengths behind Hartnell in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes. That’s not great form leading into this and we can’t see it making eight lengths on the current second favourite.
Credit to it for having its fifth Cox Plate run, but a top three finish would be a big surprise.
Predicted finish: 10th
2. Black Heart Bart (6)
Trainer: Darren Weir
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Form: 121212
Odds: $18
Black Heart Bart is a professional which has won 14 races from 35 starts. The Darren Weir-trained gelding is in career-best form having finished first or second in its last six starts which instills confidence with punters.
It fought on gamely behind Winx last start in the Caulfield Stakes and we’re not saying Black Heart Bart can turn the tables, but it deserves to be considered in the place markets and the $3.10 at Sportsbet is a great price for a top three finish.
Projected finish: 3rd
3. Hartnell (7)
Trainer: John O’Shea
Jockey: James McDonald
Form: 5×2111
Odds: $3.20
Hartnell is drifting in the market after touching $3 earlier in the week, but it looks a great winning chance and its form this campaign has been stellar.
Since being handled by Winx in the Warwick Stakes fresh up, Hartnell has won three consecutive races by a combined margin of 20 lengths and it defeated subsequent Caulfield Cup winner Jameka by 3.25 lengths last start.
Whether it will handle Moonee Valley is a big question and it failed to place in its previous run at The Valley. It will have to do some work from barrier seven and the 2040m at Moonee Valley is better suited to a strong miler.
There’s no doubting that Hartnell is running well this season, but it was well-beaten by Winx and we think Hartnell will need to find multiple lengths to win the Cox Plate.
Predicted finish: 2nd
4. Hauraki (8)
Trainer: John O’Shea
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Form: 22×121
Odds: $19
Hauraki has won five races from 20 starts and its biggest win came last time out in the Group 1 Epsom Handicap where it stormed home from last.
The five-year-old has the best form behind Winx this campaign having run the champion to within 1.3 lengths in the George Main Stakes and compared to its stablemate Hartnell which couldn’t get within three lengths of Winx, that’s great form and the odds are appealing.
Having experience running at Moonee Valley is a big factor, but the imports did well last year and Hauraki is more than capable of coping with that barrier.
Predicted finish: 4th
5. Happy Clapper (4)
Trainer: Patrick Webster
Jockey: Brenton Avdulla
Form: 23×564
Odds: $81
Having finished second in the Doncaster Handicap and third in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes would otherwise be fantastic form for the Cox Plate, but the form of Happy Clapper has tailed off and it’s now an $81 chance to win.
The Patrick Webster-trained gelding has failed to win or place in three runs since coming back from a spell and loyal followers will be hoping it can get back to the form it showed during The Championships.
The negative is that Happy Clapper failed to win those races and backing a horse that consistently gets beaten can be a losing strategy. We respect the talent of Happy Clapper, but we haven’t seen enough this season to suggest backing it at long odds.
Predicted finish: 9th
6. Vadamos (2)
Trainer: Andre Faber
Jockey: Joao Moreira
Form: 014121
Odds: $15
Vadamos is the sole internationally-trained runner in the field and it has created quite a stir in the betting market.
The Andre Fabre-trained horse looked impressive winning in France last start and it is expected that champion jockey Joao Moreira will plant it on the speed.
Running on the speed in the Cox Plate is a big advantage as it gets the chasers off the bit and makes making ground very hard.
There are holes in its form as shown when it finished 12.3 lengths behind Japanese champion A Shin Hikari, but it would be an $8 chance in this year’s Cox Plate so punters could forgive that run.
Tough to weight up form outside of Australia and at this distance, but it’s well-favoured by the barrier draw and it could push a few of these.
Predicted finish: 6th
7. Awesome Rock (5)
Trainer: Leon and Troy Corstens
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Form: 0x0155
Odds: $71
Awesome Rock was awesome when winning the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes three starts back where it put two lengths on the talented Real Love, but it looks held at this level.
It has since run fifth in the Underwood Stakes behind Black Heart Bart and fifth again behind He’s Our Rokki in the Toorak Handicap. That form is steady in its own right, but it would have to improve significantly to defeat some of the class runners in the Cox Plate.
It might attract some punters at the place odds of $10 with Sportsbet, but at best it’s a first-four inclusion.
Predicted finish: 8th
8. Winx (3)
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Form: 11×111
Odds: $2 at CrownBet.com.au
What more is there to say about Winx? The five-year-old is a champion mare which has remained undefeated since winning the 2015 Cox Plate.
It has been trained to the minute by Chris Waller with this race in mind all year and its recent workout with stablemate Lady Le Fay was very impressive.
Drawing barrier three was ideal as it will be able to find a nice sit behind the speed and expect Hugh Bowman to pull wide around the Moonee Valley turn and let it loose in the straight.
Winx was lengths better than top-quality international opposition last year and we believe it has only improved since. It appears as though only bad luck with stop Winx on Saturday.
Predicted finish: 1st
9. Lucia Valentina (9)
Trainer: Kris Lees
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Form: x41x43
Odds: $19
There’s no doubting the class of Lucia Valentina which won the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Randwick during The Championships.
It has been running on well in two starts since which included a third placing in the Underwood Stakes behind Black Heart Bart and it has the ability to cause an upset in the Cox Plate.
Whenever the six-year-old has been set for a race it usually runs well and despite suspended jockey Damien Oliver jumping ship to Vadamos, punters sticking with Lucia Valentina should have plenty of confidence that the mare could create the big upset.
It has great form on rain-affected tracks so if the predicted rain arrives on Friday, expect its price to shorten.
Take the $20 on offer at CrownBet as a saver before it drops any further.
Predicted finish: 5th
10. Yankee Rose (1)
Trainer: David Vandyke
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Form: 21×621
Odds: $15
Yankee Rose in an interesting runner in the Cox Plate and although it should be outclassed at the weight-for-age level, its weight of 47.5kg brings it into contention.
The three-year-old filly comes into this having won the Spring Champion Stakes last start over Swear and Prized Icon, but both of those runners would be paying $101 to win this Cox Plate so punters need to be cautious of taking the $15 available.
It looks as though running over the staying distances will suit in the future and running from the inside draw will secure a nice run throughout, but it needs room to wind up and it might be best to wait for a better betting opportunity regarding Yankee Rose.
Predicted finish: 7th