Cox Plate day market movers, lays of the day and big bets
IT comes as no surprise that Winx has been the biggest market mover on Cox Plate day.
The 2015 Cox Plate champion opened as high as $2.15 earlier in the week, but after a string of big bets, the five-year-old is currently paying $1.80 at Sportsbet.
The firm move for Winx has seen most of its Cox Plate rivals drift in the betting. International raider Vadamos has drifted from $15 to $18, Black Heart Bart ($15 to $23) and Yankee Rose ($14 to $15).
The only other runners attracting attention in the Cox Plate have been Hartnell which has dropped from $3.50 to $3.40 and Lucia Valentina ($21 to $18 at CrownBet).
Lucia Valentina has firmed due to the rain that fell in Melbourne on Friday. The six-year-old mare is a six-time winner on rain-affected tracks and the easing of the Moonee Valley surface could bring it right into contention.
Record bets have been placed on Winx at various prices and one punter at Luxbet.com placed a $70,000 bet at $1.80 on the champion mare. Other bets of $50,000, $30,000, $25,000 and $22,000 have been placed with various bookmakers around Australia which means the bookmakers will be hoping for an upset result in the Cox Plate.
Stablemate Lady Le Fay out of the Chris Waller stable is also a market mover. The Thorn Park mare ran track work alongside Winx earlier in the week and it looked ready to win a race.
It finished second last start in the Angst Stakes in Sydney and punters have backed it into $2.40 at Sportsbet after opening at $2.60. There have been multiple bets of $4000, $2500 and $2000 on Lady Le Fay at $2.60 and more support is expected to come on the day.
The market for the Moonee Valley Cup hasn’t changed much throughout the week, but punters have come for one runner only. Gallante has dropped from $4 to $3.80 and will likely start favourite following some large bets placed on the progressive stayer.
Sportsbet took a $3000 bet at $4, but one smart punter took the $4.20 on offer at William Hill when placing an $8000 wager.
The opening race at Moonee Valley has seen some solid market movement with two runners in particular. Current favourite Luiza was a stylish winner on debut and after opening at $3.70, punters were quick to jump on and bookmakers were forced to shorten its price to $2.70.
The biggest market mover of the day belongs to the Tony McEvoy-trained Azazel which opened at $15 and has been hammered into $4.60 at Sportsbet. There hasn’t been any large bets of note placed on the Snitzel colt, but a steady flow of money has come for Azazel and the bookmakers might regret their decision to opening it at such a high price.
Moonee Valley lays of the day
Race 6 – Sezanne at $3.50:
The Chris Waller-trained filly finished 2.5 lengths behind Global Glamour in the Group 1 Flight Stakes last start, but that run might have been flattered by the small field of six runners. It has drawn awkwardly in barrier 14 which will likely force Hugh Bowman to ride it back in the field and we think it’s a risk at the short price considering the talents of I Am A Star, La Luna Rossa and Exocet.
Race 7 – Federal at $5:
Federal ran on nicely at Flemington last start behind race-rival Ulmann, but this is its first start at Moonee Valley and its first try at the distance. Those are both major concerns and considering it hasn’t been able to win in its last five starts since May, we think the $5 is much too short against some quality milers in The United States and He Or She.
Race 8 – Who Shot Thebarman at $4:
It’s not easy to make Who Shot Thebarman a lay of the day, but the Waller-trained stayer just doesn’t know how to win anymore. It’s an eight-year-old which finished 3.4 lengths behind Sir John Hawkwood in The Metropolitan and its form prior was anything but inspiring. It is unbeaten in two starts at this distance, but it usually needs a long straight to wind up and Moonee Valley isn’t the track for that.
Race 9 – Yankee Rose at $15 with CrownBet
Yankee Rose gets into the Cox Plate with only 47.5kg which makes it a danger, but it’s not up to this class based on what we’ve seen so far. It won the Spring Champion Stakes last start by beating Swear and Prized Icon, which isn’t great form at this level and it’s taking on some of the best horses in the world. There has been the odd three-year-old winner of the Cox Plate, but we’d want a better price for the risk.