Cox Plate 2020 runner-by-runner betting guide

Humidor
Revitalised gelding Humidor will be out to capture his first Cox Plate at his third attempt.
What Group 1 Cox Plate (2040m)
Where Moonee Valley Racecourse – 1 McPherson St, Moonee Ponds VIC 3039
When Saturday, October 24, 2020
Race Start 4:15pm AEDT
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2020 Cox Plate betting preview

The $5 million Cox Plate will be run and won at 4:15pm AEDT on Saturday at Moonee Valley. Some true champions of the turf have reigned supreme in the 2040m weight-for-age championship, and this year looks to be no different for the 100th running of the great race. Russian Camelot holds slight favouritism after drawing the outside alley, ahead of Neds Stakes winner Arcadia Queen and Irish import Armory. Magic Wand finished fourth in last year’s Cox Plate and leads a four-strong European contingent in the 2020 edition.

2020 Cox Plate Speed Map

The sole three-year-old in the field, Grandslam, looks to lead from Aspetar and Magic Wand, while we wouldn’t be surprised to see Master Of Wine handy as well. Russian Camelot will get back and look for cover, and Amory and Arcadia Queen will likely be midfield in the run.

1 – Kolding (10) T: C Waller J: J McDonald 59kg

Won the Epsom/Golden Eagle double last season before going off the rails in Victoria in the Autumn. He has improved lengths in the Spring so far, winning the Group 1 George Main Stakes beating Verry Elleegant by 1.6L before going on to win the Hill Stakes over 2000m. The trainer/jockey combo is one of the best in the country at the moment, so he must be respected.

2 – Humidor (14) T: C Waller J: C Williams 59kg

Twice placed in this race behind Winx in 2017 and 2018 and has been racing well this time in finishing in the top three in all three runs including a Group 2 win in the Feehan Stakes at The Valley over 1600m in September. He has drawn poorly in gate 14 so will have to go back from the barrier, which will make it hard.

3 – Fierce Impact (12) T: M Smith J: L Currie 59kg

Fierce Impact was an impressive winner in the Makybe Diva Stakes before getting too far back in the Hill Stakes in Sydney behind Kolding. He is a genuine miler, so the 2000m may be a stretch too far. Nonetheless, if he brings his best on the day, he is a genuine each-way chance.

4 – Master Of Wine (1) T: M, J & W Hawkes J: M Rodd 59kg

We don’t know what to do with Master Of Wine now after his poor run in the Caulfield Cup just seven days ago. We’ve had plenty of time for him, but he may not be up to Group 1 level which makes it hard to find a race for him from here on in. He’ll box seat from the one alley and should get a nice run, but the drop back to 2040m and going from handicap to WFA conditions makes it hard.

5 – Mugatoo (9) T: K Lees J: J Allen 59kg

The last start Metropolitan runner up elected to bypass the Caulfield Cup and be saved for the Cox Plate and we are a fan of that move. He has been dominant since coming to Australia and seems to do his best work over 2000m. While his form isn’t Group 1 form to the standard of some of these, he will be peaking in this and should be well in at weight for age.

6 – Aspetar (3) T: R Charlton J: D Lane 59kg

UK import who brings over some brilliant form including a second to Marmelo and a win over Lord Glitters. Last year’s Cox Plate-winning hoop has been booked to ride and we would image to see the pair right up on the pace from gate three. He has reportedly travelled well and should give this a good shake.

7 – Sir Dragonet (7) T: C Maher & D Eustace J: G Boss 59kg

Another import having his first Australian start and brings over form around Logician, Buckhurst, Mountain Angel and Magical. He has finished in the first two in six of his nine starts and his four second placings have all come at this distance which should see him competitive. He looks as though he will need it wetter here but.

8 – Magic Wand (4) T: A O’Brien J: M Zahra 57kg

The first of the mares and yet another European international from the Aidan O’Brien stable is last year’s fourth placegetter, Magic Wand. She brings with her some of the best middle distance/staying form in the world with a fourth behind Ghaiyyath and Enable, so she must be respected. Mark Zahra is in the form of his life and O’Brien is arguably the world’s best trainer so it looks a lethal combo. She will be up handy to the speed from barrier four and will give it a good shake.

9 – Arcadia Queen (8) T: G & A Williams J: W Pike 57kg

The 2018 Kingston Town Classic winner returned to form last start, beating Russian Camelot by a comfortable 1.25L in the Neds Stakes over 2000m at Caulfield. She got all the favours in the run that day in the small field and was able to finish strongly over the top. We don’t expect her to get it handed to her on Saturday however, and we believe she is too short in the market. From barrier 8, Pike will have to settle near last on the mare and if the track is soft, she will be dealt a mammoth task. Include her in your multiples, but we can’t have her on top.

10 – Nettoyer (13) T: W Roche J: B Egan 57kg

This year’s Doncaster winner comes into this race after an eye-catching second in the Craven Plate at Randwick just seven days ago. Her form prior was awful, running last in the Epsom and beating only three runners home in the Chelmsford. Her Doncaster win was a huge shock, and this will be even more of a shock if she can win this.

11 – Russian Camelot (15) T: D O’Brien J: D Oliver 56.5kg

Russian Camelot is the current favourite for the race and has been for a long time now. He was as short as $3 prior to his loss in the Neds Stakes to Arcadia Queen where he just didn’t get the run to suit. While he has drawn the outside alley, we don’t see it as a huge disadvantage as it gives world-class hoop, Damien Oliver options based on how the horse jumps. His first up run in the Makybe Diva was huge and his win in the Underwood was dominant. He has been set for this race and we expect him to be running top two.

12 – Armory (6) T: A O’Brien J: B Melham 56.5kg

Another from the Aidan O’Brien yard is X-Factor colt, Armory. The son of Galileo has missed the place just twice in his career, and they were both fourth placings behind Siskin in the Irish 2000 Guineas and Magical in the Gold Cup at The Curragh, both of which came at Group 1 level. He is the highest rated horse in the race and he should get every chance from barrier 6 under Ben Melham. He can do it on all surfaces and should be suited over 2040m here. He’ll be right in the finish.

13 – Probabeel (2) T: J Richards J: K McEvoy 55.5kg

The Epsom winner Probabeel had this race earmarked nearly as soon as she crossed the line in front in the Epsom three weeks ago. Kerrin McEvoy is in superb form and put himself into quarantine to be here in time to take the ride which has to be a positive sign. Her only start over 2000m saw her place second at Group 1 level in the Vinery Stud Stakes in the Autumn, so she should get the trip no worries. From barrier 2, she will get a lovely run in transit and take some beating.

14 – Grandslam (5) T: C Maher & D Eustace J: J McNeil 49.5kg

The sole three-year-old in the race is last-start Caulfield Guineas placegetter Grandslam. The colt is a full brother to Caulfield Cup-winning mare Jameka, so he is bred to get 2000m no worries at all. His front running tactics will come into play in this given his featherweight, but his class looks to be lacking, with his only win coming at BM66 level at Morphettville back in April. He could pinch this and replicate Shamus Award, but on paper he does look out of his depth.

15EM – Buckhurst (11) T: J O’Brien J: J Kah 59kg

First emergency Buckhurst comes off a fair effort in the Caulfield Cup in his first Australian start. He has good form around a number of key fancies here, so if he works his way into the field, he would have to be a live chance we think.

2020 Cox Plate betting tips

Russian Camelot looks very hard to beat if he can bounce back from his last-start defeat, while Armory looks the main danger and should get a great run in transit. Armory’s stablemate Magic Wand looks a nice each-way play, and Probabeel should be included also.

$100 Betting Strategy
$50 win: Russian Camelot
$30 win: Armory
$20 win: Magic Wand

Topics: AU, Cox Plate, featured, moonee valley, VIC

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