Bletchingly Stakes betting guide, odds and free tips, July 29
THE Bletchingly Stakes has attracted one of the better fields during the winter season and there’s a tinge of spring in the air.
Punters wouldn’t have expected to see names such as Lankan Rupee and Keen Array in the field, but they’re both kicking off their new campaigns and it should add plenty of excitement to the Caulfield feature on Saturday.
The fields have come up trumps this Saturday with big numbers and plenty of betting value, so we have picked out our best tips for every race with form and updated odds.
Punters betting with Ladbrokes.com.au will get enhanced odds on the first four races at both Caulfield and Rosehill, which features the Winter Challenge.
Race 1 – Janet Brady Handicap (1200m)
Divine Chills is progressing nicely this campaign having won two of its last three starts. The John Sadler-trained four-year-old has won three of its five starts at this distance which is a good sign for this. Craig Williams rides which is another positive and drawing barrier 10 should allow him to find a good spot and launch late.
Sullivan Bay has been the best backed runner at $3 after opening at $3.80. The Lindsay Park-trained mare fought well at Caulfield last start when finishing second and its win prior had plenty of merit when holding off Grey Street. The five-time winner at this distance drops in weight for this which is ideal and it could pay to follow the money.
Race 1 tip: Divine Chills to win ($5) at Ladbrokes.com.au
Race 2 – Sheen Group Vobis Gold Stayers (2400m)
Punters will be seeking for their money back on Kiwia after it was a tragedy beaten at Caulfield. The Darren Weir-trained gelding ran as the $2.15 favourite, but apprentice jockey Brandon Stockdale gave it no chance in the running. A change of rider to Damien Lane will help this time around and the extra distance will also be another positive factor. $2.05 is being offered with many bookies, but enhanced odds pushes it out to $2.35 with Ladbrokes.
The only other runner in single figure odds is Charlevoix at $3.70. The Hayes/Dabernig-trained four-year-old has won four of its 14 starts and although it only battled home last start, the drop back in distance should suit for this. It will have to carry more weight than the favourite, but Craig Williams is a master rider and can make the difference.
Race 2 tip: Kiwia to win ($2.35) at Ladbrokes.com.au
Race 3 – Join Victorian Breeders Vobis Gold (1400m)
Mulk scored an overdue win last start at Sandown and it’s capable of going back-to-back. The nicely-bred son of Sepoy was knocking on the door before winning by three lengths last start and it looks to have more wins in store. This is a significant rise in grade, but there is good tote support at $4.40 and it will likely cross from the wide draw and try lead them throughout.
Nistaan has yet to win a race, but a maiden win won’t be far away. The Tony McEvoy-trained colt has finished close in behind two nice types to date and the rise to 1400m will suit perfectly. It likes to get back in the run and fly home, so drawing the inside gate might not be ideal, but expect Luke Currie to drop out the back and come with a searching run around the outside. It just needs the pace on which should come from Mulk.
Race 3 tip: Nistaan to win ($3.10) at Ladbrokes.com.au
Race 4 – Jason Hart Handicap (1100m)
Aaron Purcell lines up Written Era which has been solidly backed into $7.50. The five-year-old by Written Tycoon is fresh up after running last in the Mannerism in February and it usually goes well in this state. Its best form has come on rain-affected tracks and with rain forecast on the day, it could get conditions to suit. This is an even field and it’s a value runner.
Danuki is the current favourite and it’s also fresh up. The Clinton McDonald-trained four-year-old excels in a fresh up state with four starts for one win and two placings. It has competed in higher grades than this with good success and it only has to overcome the big weight, but over this distance that shouldn’t matter as much. The enhanced odds of $7 makes Danuki a worthwhile play.
Race 4 tip: Danuki to win ($7) at Ladbrokes.com.au
Race 5 – Nicole Slater Handicap (2000m)
Ken Keys has another nice type on his hands with Spanish Reef after winning well at Flemington last start. The three-year-old scored a strong win in the Rivette Final over Ruby Sea and although that form hasn’t quite stood up since, it showed plenty of fight which is a great quality for a younger horse. It will benefit from the 3kg claim from Brandon Stockdale and punters should expect to see it ridden positively.
Windbern could be the value runner at $7.50 after flashing home late to beat Snipfit last start. The Mick Price-trained filly has form behind the likes of Kiwia and Royal Order prior to that win and it won’t have to do much work off an inside barrier. It’s paying nice place money which is what punters could target.
Race 5 tip: Spanish Reef to place ($2.05) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 6 – Ladbrokes Odds Boost (1200m)
Former Stephen McKee-trained O’Rachael has yet to win or place in two Australian starts, but it was ridden upside down when running fourth behind Moonlites Choice last start. The Chris Waller-trained filly has plenty of class, but is long overdue a notable win. Drawing barrier two should see it settle on the pace and be tough to run down.
If Not Now When is an aptly-named runner for this because punters are getting a little impatient. The Henry Dwyer-trained filly has been producing solid finishes of late, but its racing pattern won’t see it winning many races. It’s too good to leave out, but the $5.50 is a touch skinny for our liking.
Race 6 tip: O’Rachael to win ($4.60) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 7 – Sheamus Mills Bloodstock (1400m)
Revolving Door didn’t have much luck when caught wide at Caulfield last start, but that shouldn’t be a problem from barrier two. The McDonald-trained gelding is having its fourth start this campaign which is ideal and it has shown no signs of slowing down. The Group 1 Caulfield Guineas entrant has the class to continue performing well at this level and the $2.60 is a fair price from bookmakers.
Nikitas is another high-class type which fought well behind Revolving Door at Caulfield. The Weir-trained former Queenslander has been around the mark since transferring stables and it only needs to cope with the wide barrier to feature. Punters are getting each way odds of $7 so consider.
Race 7 tip: Revolving Door to win ($2.60) at Bet365.com
Race 8 – Bletchingly Stakes (1200m)
There will be plenty of attention placed on Lankan Rupee and the punters have come for it. The Mick Price-trained champion opened at $5.50 and has firmed into $4.40 on the back of big sentimental support. It’s lethal fresh up with eight starts for four wins and three placings, but we question just how well the seven-year-old is travelling. It’s had numerous problems throughout its career and although this is an easier field, there are some worries.
Supido has drifted in the market from $3.20 to $3.50 despite winning easily last time out. The Michael Kent-trained entire sat three wide and still had too much pace for them and punters are getting better than the $1.70 offered on that occasion. Expect to see its current price firm in after the moves for Lankan Rupee stop.
Race 8 tip: Supido to win ($3.50) at CrownBet.com.au
Race 9 – Moniek And Susanne Sambor Handicap (1700m)
Cosmic Lights has hit a dry spell in terms of winning, but there is room for improvement. The Peter Morgan-trained six-year-old has been flying home behind some quality types of late and the extra distance looks ideal. $4.50 is a touch short after opening at $5.50, but this is a winnable race.
Galaxy Raider went close last start after getting too far back with Craig Williams in the saddle, but he’s opted to ride Cosmic Lights which could be telling. The four-year-old finished a length within Dulverton which has since run well and carrying only 54kg might help. $4.20 currently, but expect that price to drift out slightly.
Race 9 tip: Cosmic Lights to win ($4.50) at Ladbrokes.com.au