Best bets and updated odds for Winter Stakes Day at Rosehill
THE Sir John Monash Stakes at Caulfield is the highlight race of the day, but there are plenty of good horses in action at Rosehill where punters can take advantage of the value on offer.
It all starts with Race 1 which features a smart Godolphin colt looking to take advantage of an easier field this time around.
Morton’s Fork is paying $2.60 at Sportsbet.com.au which looks like a good way for punters to start the day. The two-year-old by is trained by John O’Shea and it has finished second in three of its four starts, winning the other at Canterbury second up.
The son of Ad Valorem keeps finding one better, but its second placing behind Russian Revolution was strong at Randwick and it just got too far back last time out.
Drawing barrier 10 is a tough alley, but its race-day experience should help and we’re expecting a big run from the highly-considered colt.
Race 5 sees the running of the Chris Waller-trained Obsidian which has placed in one run since arriving into Australia from Ireland. The five-year-old gelding by Street Cry is a winner of two from 19 and is expected to start performing much better than it has been showing.
There were good signs last start at Rosehill when it rattled home to finish fourth behind race-rival Wine ‘n’ Dine, and punters are confident it can turn the tables. It opened at $5 and has dropped to $4.80 at Sportsbet with further support expected over the next 24 hours.
The $160,000 Winter Stakes is the feature on the card where there is currently six horses quoted at $7.50 or shorter. That should make for an even race, but there is value with one runner which is overdue for a major win.
Oxford Poet has been knocking on the door this season with a second placing behind Artlee in the Luskin Star Stakes and a third behind Danish Twist in the June Stakes at Randwick. It didn’t get much peace in front against a similar field last start, but it handles all track conditions and the $6 on offer at Crownbet.com.au is nice each way value.
El Sasso lines up in the following race, a benchmark 93 over 1200m, having won its last two starts. The Peter and Paul Snowden-trained gelding won either side of a three-month spell and although it hasn’t won in five second up starts, it appears to have come back stronger and this is a battlers field.
Five of its six career wins have come on a soft track so conditions will suit and $2.60 at Sportsbet suggests it’s another strong winning chance again.
The last race on the card is the McGrath Estate Agents R77 Handicap which features an underrated type from the Pride stables. Butterboom is a winner of four from 14 with five placings and support came early in the week for the mare, but it has since tapered off in the market.
The four-year-old opened at $5 and quickly shortened to $3.60 with the scratching of Thud, but it has since drifted out to $3.80. That’s a fair price for a runner which scored a nice win two back and it drops down in grade for this.
It will have to carry a bigger weight of 60kg, but it wasn’t disgraced when finished fourth three starts back behind Elle Lou when it carried 61kg. Consider as a strong win chance at $3.80 with Bet365.com.au.
Horses to watch at Rosehill
There are some horses which don’t appear as great betting opportunities, but should have an eye kept on them at Rosehill this Saturday.
Former New Zealand runner Kingsguard lines up in race 2 after finishing second in a maiden race at Warwick Farm last start. The Hawkes-trained gelding steps right up in grade to rating 76 grade which is an interesting decision and there has been some support in the market.
It is currently paying $8 on the fixed odds win market which suggests the stable might believe it has a winning chance. Follow any positive market moves.
Rock Mylady is paying $13 despite winning in rating 72 grade last start where it carried 60kg. The Snowden-trained gelding showed plenty of promise as a youngster before putting in some moderate efforts, but it looked back to its best last start and the odds are very generous.
It’s not an easy field, but it could be worth a small wager at $13 with Sportsbet.
Thud – that’s exactly what punters have felt when backing this enigmatic runner in its last two starts. The Snowden-trained mare has been extremely unlucky this campaign and punters will be wanting their money back this Saturday.
It finished fourth at Rosehill which ultimately gave jockey Blake Shinn a one-month suspension and the luck wasn’y any better last start when it got shut out late in the race. We can’t commit to the $2.90 on offer as unlucky horses typically stay that way, but it’s a must-watch horse.