2017 Australian Oaks free tips, updated odds and market movers
ONE of the most even fields throughout The Championships is the Group 1 Australian Oaks where five horses are currently priced at single figure odds.
The three-year-old staying features have been dominated by New Zealand runners throughout the Sydney carnival and there’s a new filly on the scene by the name of Bonneval.
The formidable training partnership of Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman line up the Kiwi filly which has scored three consecutive wins including the New Zealand Oaks.
There’s plenty of stiff competition from the locals, however, and we have listed our best tips, value runners and upset hopes for the group one feature this Saturday.
2017 Australian Oaks betting market
[rmOC_events_list event_ids=1131647_06]
The 2017 Australian Oaks has been one of the quietest betting races throughout the week so far. There has been minimal moves for Bonneval which opened at $4 and is out to $4.40.
Nurse Kitchen has been the only runner backed with some confidence and after opening at $6 it’s now into $5.50.
Every other runner is holding steady at their opening quotes, including 2016 Crown Oaks winner Lasqueti Spirit which remains at $8.
Australian Oaks best bet – Bonneval
Going against the Kiwi age-group stayers has been a recipe for disaster this Sydney autumn so we’re sticking with the tried and tested formula here.
Bonneval has looked impressive in winning its last three starts in New Zealand. The Baker/Forsman-trained filly won the Sir Tristram Stakes at Te Rapa before stepping up over more ground and winning the Lowland Stakes in dramatic fashion.
It showed a good will to win last start in the New Zealand Oaks when it didn’t look likely, but it sprouted wings late which bodes well for Saturday.
It has two wins on a slow track and New Zealand racing surfaces are like muddy paddocks compared to those in Australia. It will handle anything Randwick has to offer and the Baker/Forsman team have already tasted success with Australian Derby winner Jon Snow.
Hugh Bowman rides and everything points towards a Bonneval victory at odds of +340 with WilliamHill.com.au.
Australian Oaks next best – Lasqueti Spirit
Punters might have forgotten about Lasqueti Spirit, but it’s firmly in our sights after running against much harder opposition this campaign.
The 2017 Crown Oaks winner hasn’t won since that famous victory at Flemington, but it has run into Winx twice since then and it finished second behind the champion mare in the Chipping Norton on this track.
That form is extremely good for this and despite not running well last start, it wasn’t given a very good ride by Brenton Avdulla. Jay Ford returns to the saddle for this and its trainer Lee Curtis was adamant that his runner would handle the wet conditions at Randwick.
Punters can expect Lasqueti Spirit to be ridden on the speed and it looks a much better betting prospect against its own age and sex.
There is +700 available at CrownBet which is a solid each way price.
Australian Oaks place chance – Nurse Kitchen
Nurse Kitchen was unlucky not to win the Vinery Stud Stakes last start, but it will get its chance to win the Oaks on Saturday.
The David Brideoake-trained filly flew late, but wasn’t able to reel in Montoya’s Secret over the 2000m trip. The rise in distance is an unknown for the daughter of Savabeel, but it’s bred to see out the staying distances.
It showed its ability to run in the wet when winning at Moonee Valley in the slow going and it looks one of the better each way chances in this race.
We do question whether it has the will to win over this distance, but the $2 to place at Sportsbet is worth taking and it won’t be far away from the action.
Australian Oaks blowout runner – Devise
So it wouldn’t actually be called a blowout win if Devise was to get up, but it’s certainly not the most-fancied New Zealand runner in the race.
The Shaune Ritchie-trained filly finished second behind Bonneval in the NZ Oaks and it hasn’t won at its last five starts, but it’s been awfully close.
It has placed at its last three, all coming behind the current favourite, and it has the ability to turn the tables. The daughter of Darci Brahma is bred to see out the Oaks distance and it had to do all the work up front at Trentham last start.
It’s a filly which might enjoy running on a heavy track, especially if it can lead and get the field chasing off the bit.
Having Damien Oliver in the saddle will help its chances and the +700 at Bet365 is a good value price.