2016 Stradbroke Handicap Day at Eagle Farm with full card tips
EAGLE Farm hosts the biggest day to ever feature in the Brisbane winter carnival this Saturday. Four group 1 races will welcome in the new and improved Eagle Farm track and they all run on the last four races of the card.
That gives punters even more reason to take a quaddie which will reach massive levels due to the popularity of the four big races. The Stradbroke Handicap, J.J Atkins, Queensland Derby and Queensland Oaks have attracted big bets throughout the week and the fine weather conditions has punters excited.
Take a win bet with Crownbet.com.au and if your horse finishes second or third on any race, it will give you a bonus bet of up to $50.
Race 1 – James Boag’s Lancaster Stakes (1200m)
Chipanda has been well-supported from $4 to $3.80 following a stylish win at Rosehill last start. The John O’Shea-trained filly picked a path through runners and flashed home late to win by a half-length. Its form prior included two placings behind Star Turn and Honesty Prevails and that form should stack up nicely for this.
Royal Tithe brings value to the race at double-figure odds. The John Ziekle-trained filly endured a tough run in the Sires’ Produce, but this is much easier and it will likely drop back from the wide draw and run home late. It showed a great turn-of-foot when winning three races in Queensland and the $11 price is worth having a go at.
Invincibella should have won last start at Canterbury when it was held up at a vital stage in the race. Chris Waller lines up the filly which gets Hugh Bowman in the saddle and it has drawn favourably in barrier four. It opened at $4.80, drifted to $5, but has since been backed to its original price.
Race 1 tip: Royal Tithe to win ($11) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 2 – RadioTAB The Wayne Wilson Mile (1600m)
Religify has been one of the best backed runners of the day. The Chris Waller-trained gelding opened at $6.50 and currently sits at $4.80 after heavy support during the week. Top international rider Joao Moreira takes the ride which helps and the only question remains is whether it can see out the 1600m distance. It will likely head forward from barrier 12 and be tough to run down.
The class in the race is Volkstok’n’barrell which battled on well for fourth in the Group 1 Doomben Cup behind Our Ivanhowe. The four-year-old will be forced to carry 61kg, but it hasn’t dropped this low in class for some time and it will appreciate the ease in conditions. It should be able to dictate proceedings from the inside draw, so consider at $4.20.
Pajaro has hit a purple patch of form having won the Scone Cup two starts back before running second in the Lord Mayor’s Cup at Doomben. It races best at this distance and it drops down 2kg from its last start which will help. Bookmakers are offering a good each way price of $9 so consider here.
Race 2 tip: Volkstok’n’barrell to win ($4.20) at Crownbet.com.au
Race 3 – Bundaberg Dane Ripper Stakes (1400m)
Cradle Me has turned around a poor performance in the Hawkesbury Crown to publish back-to-back placings. The first was a third placing behind Clearly Innocent at Scone before it put in a super run behind Ghisoni in the Glenlogan Park Stakes last start. It once again faces the tough test of beating Ghisoni, but it’s a great place chance at $2.10.
Ghisoni is clearly the horse to beat after its impressive win against a similar field last start. The Godolphin filly is destined for bigger things, but it once again will have to do work from an outside barrier. Drawing 14 will force McDonald to push forward, but it has the tactic speed to overcome that. $1.70 is on the short side of value, but it should be winning this.
Telepathic opened at $13 and has steadily been backed into $10. The former Kiwi runner, now with Chris Waller, hasn’t won for some time now which is concerning, but it goes best at this distance and represents some each way value.
Race 3 tip: Ghisoni to win ($1.70) at WilliamHill.com.au
Race 4 – Mirvac Queensland Guineas (1600m)
Too Good To Refuse has drawn poorly in barrier 17, but its chances still seem high after a good effort for fifth in the Fred Best Classic. The talented three-year-old has form in behind the likes of Cylinder Beach and that should suit for this. It needs luck from the draw, but at least punters are getting a good price of $10.
Tsaritsa has been backed in from $3.50 to $2.80 and rightfully so after winning its last two starts. The Chris Waller-trained filly has improved significantly from midweek grade to here and it has looked special in back-to-back wins. It’s another which has drawn wide, but it has the ability to settle back in the field before producing a slick sprint. Tough to beat.
Sold For Song didn’t have much luck in the Fred Best as it had no room in the straight. Its form prior including placings behind Divine Centuri and Takedown, which should stack up nicely. The barrier of 21 won’t matter as it will get pulled back and be saved for one last run at them. Good chance if the pace is on up front at $10.
Race 4 tip: Sold For Song to win ($10) at Crownbet.com.au
Race 5 – Mirvac QTC Cup (1300m)
Spill The Beans has dropped from its opening price of $6.50 into $5.50. The Gerald Ryan-trained colt likes to go forward and it will have its work cut out for it from barrier 15, but it does have good gate speed. Its win in the Hawkesbury Guineas two back was impressive and carrying only 53kg is a blessing. The weight advantage could see it winning this.
Federal will carry the same weight of 53kg and its recent form suggests it could take this out. The son of Medaglia D’oro finished under a half-length behind Music Magnate in the Hall Mark Stakes and it subsequently won a group 1. It only battled behind Clearly Innocent last start, but it could add some value to multiples at $7.50.
Perfect Fit comes over from New Zealand with an impressive record of six wins and four placings from 11 starts. The Ken and Bev Kelso-trained mare has won its last four from five and the improved track conditions play right into its hands. It has developed into more of a miler, but respect as a danger at this level. $7 available after touching $7.50 earlier in the week.
Race 5 tip: Perfect Fit to place ($2.50) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 6 – Evergreen Turf Brisbane Cup (2400m)
Ecuador has turned its form around with back-to-back wins and they have both been super-impressive. The Gai Waterhouse-trained gelding looked to be treading water this campaign with average runs in the Doncaster Handicap and the Hawkesbury Cup, but it has found a new lease on life since. If it gets to the front with a soft lead it will be hard to run down. Its price of $6 has stayed steady.
We can’t fault the form of Real Love. The Darren Weir-trained mare has won both starts in Queensland this preparation and it shouldn’t find this any harder. The nine-win daughter of Desert King hasn’t done anything wrong to deter punters, but it has drifted alarmingly from $3.80 to $4.40. There will be real concern if that price continues to drift.
Sir John Hawkwood has been a model of consistency this season and it didn’t have the best of luck in behind Real Love last start. This type of race is right up its alley and it should be able to find a nice run from barrier two. It has two wins at this distance and the $6 is a good each way price for a quality runner.
Race 6 tip: Sir John Hawkwood to win ($6) at Bet365.com.au
Race 7 – Group 1 J.J Atkins (1600m)
Souchez didn’t help its chances last start by missing the jump. It was on the back foot from the outset and never had a chance, but the extra distance will help here and it has plenty of quality about it. The good-looking son of Lonhro is paying $4.60 and considering it ran at $1.90 last start, that price is good value.
Sacred Elixir finished sixth in the Sires’ Produce and it was arguably the run of the race. The Tony Pike-trained gelding defied the leaders’ bias and flashed home late. With the extra distance this race looks ideal and punters didn’t miss its last run. It opened as the favourite at $4.20 and has dropped to $4 which is a good sign and a big run is expected from the Kiwi raider.
Candika is a tough local chance which has prepared nicely for this with three runs this campaign. The two-year-old didn’t have much luck in the Sires’ and it should be able to get a good run from barrier eight. It gets a weight advantage over the colts and geldings so it looks a top winning chance and it has been backed in from $9 to $7.50.
Race 7 tip: Sacred Elixir to win ($4) at Sportsbet.com.au
Race 8 – Group 1 Channel 7 Queensland Derby (2400m)
Mackintosh will look to potential keep the New Zealand charge going with a win in the Queensland Derby. The three-year-old by Pins has won three consecutive races in Australia for Chris Waller and it has looked good doing so. It likes to go forward and dictate play and Derby’s are usually slowly-run affairs. The $4.60 price on face value is a good price so consider for win bets.
Howard Be Thy Name has come from a rating 70 at Pakenham to winning the South Australian Derby in just a handful of starts. The in-form Darren Weir-trained colt probably should have continued its picket fence form line last start in the Grand Prix Stakes, but it ran out of time. The Redoute’s Choice colt is firing on all cylinders and it looks tough to beat at $4.40.
Eagle Way has been well-supported in the betting. The Bryan Guy-trained gelding produced a big finish to run second in the Grand Prix Stakes and punters have taken notice. The son of More Than Ready is currently paying $4.80 which looks a little short, but the increase in distance will suit nicely and it could capitalise. Definite winning threat.
Queensland Derby tip: Howard Be Thy Name to win ($4.40) at Crownbet.com.au
Race 9 – Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap (1400m)
Black Heart Bart will have to do it tough by carrying 58kg, but it has shown the ability to carry big weights to victory. The Darren Weir-trained gelding won with 57kg on its back last start in The Goodwood and it’s in career-best form. It won’t be an easy task, especially against a quality field which are better off at the weights, but a win wouldn’t surprise anyone. $6 chance with bookmakers.
Azkadellia is the horse to beat following a nice run in the Doomben 10,000. Ciaron Maher is shooting for consecutive wins in this race and he believes Azkadellia is a better chance than Srikandi was last year. The four-year-old ran on well behind Music Magnate last start and with Damien Oliver in the saddle with only 54.5kg, it should go close. It has been backed from $4 to $3.50 and we expect that price to shorten.
Music Magnate should be included based off its last start win and it has been set for this race. Bjorn Baker is training winners everywhere at the moment and this gelding has a very bright future. The $10 price being offered is good value and the $3.10 for the place could add some value to multiples. Should run well again.
Stradbroke Handicap tip: Azkadellia to win ($3.50) at WilliamHill.com.au
Race 10 – Treasury Casino Group 1 Queensland Oaks (2400m)
Falkenberg was desperately unlucky in The Roses last start, but it look a top chance over the longer distance. The Peter and Paul Snowden-trained filly missed the jump and never found a clear passage, but from barrier three it should be able to get a good trip in transit. The run would have done it no harm and it looks a top chance at $7.
Kebede was a worthy winner last start and based on its breeding, it should relish the rise up in distance. The daughter of Redoute’s Choice has been running well all campaign, but has continued to fly under the radar. The bookmakers opened it at $10 last week and that price hasn’t budged since. It looks certain to see out the distance so consider it for the win.
Provocative is still on the ballot, but its opening price of $12 has dropped down to $7.50. The Tony Pike-trained filly won well down in grade last start, but it has been set for the Oaks and it could add some much needed speed in the race. Drawing barrier 20 hasn’t helped its chances, but if it runs it will prove its worth.
Queensland Oaks tip: Falkenberg to win ($7) at Sportsbet.com.au