2016 Group 1 Goodwood Handicap market and best value bets
The $500,000 Group 1 Goodwood Handicap is one of Adelaide’s biggest races and a big field of 20 will take their place at 4:50pm this Saturday at Morphettville.
The popularity of the Goodwood took off when Takeover Target won as the $1.40 favourite in 2009, and even more so when the great Black Caviar won paying $1.10 in 2012.
They were the only two favourites to have won the Goodwood in the last 10 years and the size of the field this year makes it tough to sort out a clear favourite.
It might pay to discard the favourites and look for horses paying double figures. 18 of the last 33 winners of the Goodwood Handicap have paid in double figures, averaging over $22, which makes this years running even more wide open.
Make betting on the feature race easier with Sportsbet.com.au which is offering a cash back special if your horse runs second.
2016 Goodwood Handicap field and odds
1. Flamberge – $16
2. The Quarterback – $16
3. Black Heart Bart – $3.70
4. Churchill Dancer – $26
5. Griante – scratched
6. Big Money – $31
7. Smokin’ Joey – $51
8. Nostradamus – $41
9. Fast ‘n’ Rocking – $21
10. Daytona Grey – $81
11. Under The Louvre – $7.50 at Sportsbet.com.au
12. Admiral – $13
13. Faatinah – $34
14. Super One – $16
15. Supido – $5.50
16. Sirbible – $81
17. Cashed – $126
18. Miss Promiscuity – $31
19. Sheidel – $12
20. Sooboog – $15
Punters of Black Heart Bart and Supido will have to defy the recent favourites’ bias and it took two champion thoroughbreds just to make it two from the last 10.
We have been in the camp of Supido all throughout its winning streak and it has the ability to win at this level, but punters aren’t getting a great price. $5.50 for a horse which has risen through the grades in only two campaigns should be around the $8 mark.
The value is with the likes of Flamberge, The Quarterback and Under The Louvre. Flamberge is a noted group one winner and the $16 available represents good each way value. It usually finds its best form when bookmakers let it drift in the market.
The Quarterback is on a Royal Ascot campaign, but punters don’t want the action. The Robbie Griffiths-trained gelding opened at $12 and has drifted steadily throughout the week to $16. That is concerning and it will rely on luck from the back of the field, but it’s a quality horse.
Under The Louvre is the shortest-priced of the runners at $7.50. The five-year-old has been knocking on the door of a major win throughout its career and it ran well enough for third last start to suggest a big run is coming. The wide draw will allow it to settle midfield before launching its claim down the outside.
There are three other runners at double-figure odds which could provide some value for place punters. Admiral brings consistent form into this and although that form came in Tasmania, it looks to have plenty of ability. It has hovered around the mid-range price all week and the $4 for the place looks like value.
Miss Promiscuity was travelling very well last start before losing its rider and its form prior included back-to-back victories. It shouldn’t be paying $31/$8 at Sportsbet.com.au which is way over the odds. We priced it at around $16.
The final runner is Sheidel at $12. The Hayes/Dabernig-trained mare has been up for awhile this preparation, but has yet to put in a bad effort. We wouldn’t be surprised to see it winning.