2016 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot with odds and tips
THE Australians are back at Royal Ascot on the final day of the carnival. In a race we’ve had plenty of success in, the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee is the feature sprint at Royal Ascot and Australia is represented by the John O’Shea-trained Holler.
The four-year-old is looking to walk in the footsteps of 2012 Diamond Jubilee winner Black Caviar, and also Brazen Beau which arguably could have won last year when it finished second behind Undrafted which is back to defend its title.
O’Shea is confident he has the right horse to win at Royal Ascot. The pressure of representing Australia is a big task and it is taking on a seriously good field this year.
“He’s a horse that likes to control his races and probably at five furlongs he does not have that luxury. He’s more chance to get in his rhythm over six furlongs,” O’Shea said.
“Holler is a big, tough, galloping horse and I think he will be okay at Ascot.”
Place a bet on the Diamond Jubilee with Crownbet and if your horse finishes second, you’ll get your stake matched up to $50.
2016 Diamond Jubilee Stakes market
1. Gold-Fun – $11
2. Holler – $13 at Sportsbet.com.au
3. Jungle Cat – $13
4. Magical Memory – $4
5. Mattmu – $21
6. Signs Of Blessing – $21
7. Suedois – $11
8. The Tin Man – $5
9. Twilight Son – $5
10. Undrafted – $11
The 2016 edition of the Diamond Jubilee is a truly international field and it represents some of the world’s best sprinters. Hong Kong is represented by Gold-Fun which finished second in the Group 1 Hong Kong Sprint and it’s currently at double-figure odds.
Australia has Holler which isn’t our best sprinter by a long shot, but its last start was a second in the Group 1 William Reid behind Flamberge, but it would need to be winning that race to be a single-figure odds chance in this. Our best sprinter, Chautauqua, has left at home, but Holler does provide a solid each way hope.
The current $4 favourite is Magical Memory having won its last two starts. The Charles Hills-trained four-year-old has stayed steady in the market after winning the Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes last start. Its form prior wasn’t overly impressive so there is plenty of value elsewhere in the market.
Diamond Jubilee betting guide and tips
1. Gold-Fun – $11
Trainer: Richard Gibson
Jockey: Christophe Soumillon
Form: 12×244
The experienced seven-year-old hasn’t raced outside of Hong Kong since its second career start when it won at Naas, but every start since has come at Sha Tin. It returns to the U.K having run fourth in the Group 1 Chairman’s Sprint Prize and although it’s clearly past its best, the son of Le Vie Dei Colori is a chance at running in the first three.
It usually goes best around five starts after its last win so after four win-less efforts, it is due a major victory at Royal Ascot.
2. Holler – $13
Trainer: John O’Shea
Jockey: James McDonald
Form: 1×1512
Holler is a talented three-year-old colt which has had seven starts for three wins. The son of Commands won the Group 1 Canterbury Stakes over the likes of First Seal and Kermadec, before running second in the William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley.
Its form is impressive in Australia, but this is another rise in class and the Godolphin runner might find a few of its rivals too tough. Place chance at good odds.
3. Jungle Cat – $13
Trainer: Charlie Appleby
Jockey: William Buick
Form: x12424
Godolphin lines up another colt which hasn’t been able to win at group 1 level, but it has been relatively consistent throughout its career. The son of Iffraaj has finished fifth or better in 14 of its 15 career starts, with the only failure coming in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup during this carnival last year.
It ran fourth in the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan behind Buffering and it’s on the quick back-up after running fourth behind Profitable in the Group 1 King’s Stand Stakes. That could help its chances if it gets through the run well.
4. Magical Memory – $4
Trainer: Charles Hills
Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Form: 113×11
The Irish-bred gelding is a five-time winner which comes into this with back-to-back victories at group level. Most of its form prior came at handicap level which won’t be good enough to win this and the $4 looks far too short for our liking.
There is no doubting the four-year-olds ability, but taking such a short price for a non-group 1 winning gelding is risky and there is some quality opposition against it. We expect the price to drift slightly come post time.
5. Mattmu – $21
Trainer: Tim Easterby
Jockey: David Allan
Form: 130×38
Mattmu is an inconsistent type which has a group 2 and group 3 win to its name, but it throws in the odd poor run which turns punters off. It ran second in the Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes this time last year and if it could hold that form it would be a chance, but it ran 14th in the Group 1 Sprint Cup three starts back and that’s simply not good enough.
Its most recent effort was an eighth in the 2016 Duke Of York Stakes and it would need a sudden change of form to be a factor here. $21 looks about right in the market.
6. Signs Of Blessing – $21
Trainer: Francois Rohaut
Jockey: Olivier Peslier
Form: 50×115
Five-year-old gelding Signs Of Blessing is a French runner which won two consecutive races prior to running fifth in the Group 3 Prix de Saint Georges last start. The son of Invincible Spirit is a five-time winner which has plenty of ability and it should appreciate the soft track conditions.
It’s not a fancied runner in the market at $21 and it would need some luck to win, but consider for place bets at a nice price.
7. Suedois – $11
Trainer: David O’Meara
Jockey: Daniel Tudhope
Form: 818×22
Suedois looks a top each way chance at $11 with Sportsbet. The five-year-old finished second behind Magical Memory in the Duke Of York Stake and there is $7 difference in their respective win prices.
It won the Group 3 Prix de Meautry in France and that form should stack up nicely for this. Its best distance is the 1200m and its poor form has come over shorter and longer distances. The son of Le Havre looks a good chance to upset the favourite.
8. The Tin Man – $5
Trainer: James Fanshawke
Jockey: Tom Queally
Form: 1814×1
The Tin Man is having just its eighth career start, but has looked promising so far throughout. The four-year-old is nicely bred by Equiano and comes into this off a last start win at Windsor. It has faced the toughest grade only once when fourth in the Group 1 British Champions Sprint Stakes behind Muhaarar which is good enough for this.
It has been well-respected in the market at $5 and we wouldn’t be surprised if it closed as the favourite. We are hoping it stays steady at the price as any shorter would be void of value.
9. Twilight Son – $5
Trainer: Henry Candy
Jockey: Ryan Moore
Form: 1112×5
One of the best-performed horses in the field, Twilight Son is a talented colt which won its first five career starts and it defeated Magical Memory on three occasions. It ran second in the Group 1 British Champions Sprint Stakes two starts back and didn’t quite run up to expectations when fifth behind Magical Memory last start.
That was its first start in seven months so the disappointing effort was to be expected. We think it can rebound with a win and the $5 at Crownbet looks a fair price. Should be going close in an even race.
10. Undrafted – $11
Trainer: Wesley Ward
Jockey: John Velazquez
Form: 2125×1
Punters should respect the 2015 champion Undrafted. From the Wesley Ward stables which has already tasted Royal Ascot success this carnival, the six-year-old globetrotter has had only two runs since that victory a year ago which is a big concern.
Its last start came when it ran fifth in the Breeders Cup Turf behind Mongolian Saturday and that was in October. It has to be respected based on its win over Brazen Beau last year and if it can recapture that form, the $11 will look silly.
There are too many issues with this runner to suggest as a winning chance, but we wouldn’t rule it out completely.