2016 Darley Classic betting guide, odds and free tips
THE Darley Classic is the premier sprint race on the final day of the Melbourne spring carnival and we have a runner-by-runner betting guide complete with free tips and the latest odds.
The Group 1 $1 million Darley Classic features a field of 12 runners with varying form lines. That has resulted in an even betting market where punters are able to secure a great price for their runner.
Lankan Rupee continues its comeback after being off the track for over a year and 19-time winner Our Boy Malachi is looking for consecutive wins in Melbourne.
With the likes of The Quarterback, Fell Swoop and Spieth in the field – punters can guarantee the 1200m dash is packed with excitement.
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Darley Classic updated market
1. Lankan Rupee – $6
2. Turn Me Loose – $34
3. The Quarterback – $6.50
4. Japonisme – $17
5. Fell Swoop – $6.50
6. Our Boy Malachi – $4.60
7. Malaguerra – $9
8. Holler – $23
9. Keen Array – $23
10. Spieth – $10
11. English – $12
12. Sheidel – $13
There has been plenty of market movement for the Darley Classic. Opening $4.50 favourite Fell Swoop is friendless in the betting and has drifted out to $6.50.
Spieth has drifted out a point to $10 after touching $9 and fresh up winner The Quarterback has moved from $6 to $6.50.
Most of the money has come for Our Boy Malachi which has firmed into favouritism at $5. The top-class sprinter opened at $6.50 and it will have plenty of support on the day.
Lankan Rupee has firmed in a touch to $6 with Malaguerra coming in from $13 to $9 after it was confidently backed by some TV personalities.
Darley Classic runner-by-runner betting guide
1. Lankan Rupee – $6
Trainer: Mick Price
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Form: 69x3x3
Barrier: 7
Lankan Rupee is a grand sprinter which was very unlucky behind Our Boy Malachi in the Caulfield Sprint after more than a year off the track.
The seven-year-old is an 11-time winner with three coming at Flemington and at its best, it would towel this field up. But, it’s no longer at the peak of its sprinting abilities and punters should be cautious betting on Lankan Rupee second up this year.
Its best form comes fresh up, but it goes well second up and it has been well-supported in the betting. We wouldn’t suggest taking the $6 to win as we rate it a $9-$10 chance, but consider the $2.25 at CrownBet for a top three finish.
2. Turn Me Loose – $34
Trainer: Baker/Forsman
Jockey: Damien Oliver
Form: 4160×8
Barrier: 10
Turn Me Loose didn’t feature in the Schillaci Stakes fresh up, but it quickly finds its form with three wins coming second up.
The five-year-old hasn’t fired in three runs since winning the Group 1 Futurity Stakes in February and we question whether it still has its mind on racing.
There’s no doubting its future at stud and it has some big wins beside its name, but we can’t see it winning over 1200m down the Flemington straight and a top five finish would be a big surprise.
3. The Quarterback – $6.50
Trainer: Robbie Griffiths
Jockey: Matthew Allen
Form: 539×14
Barrier: 4
The son of Street Boss looked the goods when winning the Gilgai Stakes on this track two starts back and it has a real affinity with Flemington.
The six-year-old has had 12 starts at Flemington for five wins and four placings. It ran on late behind Rebel Dane in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes which suggests The Quarterback has come back from a spell in fine order this preparation.
It handles all track conditions and from barrier four we expect Matthew Allen to sit just off the speed before coming along the inside of runners late.
The $6.50 at Sportsbet is a good win price.
4. Japonisme – $17
Trainer: Chris Waller
Jockey: Glyn Schofield
Form: 13×603
Barrier: 2
Japonisme won the Group 1 Arrowfield Stakes at Randwick during The Championships and punters have done their money in four starts since.
It finished third in the BTC Cup at Doomben behind Malaguerra which was a solid run, but its run following when sixth in the Concorde Stakes as a $2.45 favourite was very poor.
It then ran last in The Shorts at Randwick before producing its best effort this season when third in the Manikato Stakes. It was posted wide throughout that run and it still fought to the line, so it’s not without a chance in this.
It has drifted from $15 to $17 in the market.
5. Fell Swoop – $6.50
Trainer: Matthew Dale
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Form: 156×32
Barrier: 3
Fell Swoop opened up at $4.50 and has drifted to $6.50. That’s an alarming drift and as punters have seen throughout the spring carnival so far, it pays to take notice of the betting drifts.
The talented five-year-old is a nine-time winner which finished second in the Manikato Stakes last start and it usually improves with racing. It has won four times over this distance from seven starts, but the big question that has been concerning punters is whether it will handle the Flemington straight for the first time.
Not all horses enjoy running in a straight line, so straight-racing experience is vital. It runs best when getting a drag into the race and drawing barrier three might rule out its chances.
6. Our Boy Malachi – $4.60
Trainer: Team Hawkes
Jockey: Dwayne Dunn
Form: 154×21
Barrier: 5
Age is no barrier for Our Boy Malachi which continues to impress at the age of nine. The “Rockhampton Rocket” is a 19-time winner which ran through the line when winning the Caulfield Sprint last start and there’s no reason to doubt it now.
It tipped its stakes earnings to over $1 million last start and it looks a strong chance to add to that on Saturday. This will be its first run down the Flemington straight and we’ve expressed concerns about that, but Our Boy Malachi has pure speed and doesn’t need the right run to figure in the finish.
Currently at $4.60 with Sportsbet and is shortening by the minute.
7. Malaguerra – $9
Trainer: Peter Gelagotis
Jockey: Ben Melham
Form: 1619×2
Barrier: 11
Malaguerra opened at $13 and has been backed into $9. The former Hawkes-trained runner, now with Peter Gelagotis, ran well for second in the Schillaci Stakes at Caulfield and it has won twice second up.
Its best credentials are its track statistics of five starts for three wins at Flemington. It is also a four-time winner at 1200m and that bodes well for the Darley Classic.
The BTC Cup winner could be back to its best and it shouldn’t be overlooked at the $9 quote.
8. Holler – $23
Trainer: John O’Shea
Jockey: James McDonald
Form: 5127×0
Was considered good enough to run in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot in June where it finished five lengths behind the winner.
Its form prior included a second placing in the Group 1 William Reid behind Flamberge, but that form hasn’t quite stacked up well and it looked a touch weak last time out in the Manikato Stakes.
Can’t deny the ability of Godolphin runners, but it looks well-held in this.
9. Keen Array – $23
Trainer: Hayes/Dabernig
Jockey: Stephen Baster
Form: 3×2114
Barrier: 8
This four-year-old gelding started this campaign in style with a placing in the Chandler Macleod before winning the Testa Rossa Stakes and the Caulfield Village Stakes over Illustrious Lad. It then finished fourth behind Illustrious Lad last start which took some of the shine off the season.
It has great statistics over the 1200m, but it hasn’t won in three starts at Flemington and it’s likely to lead in this, which will set it up for a swooper late.
Just not good enough to win at this level.
10. Spieth – $10
Trainer: Bryce Heys
Jockey: Brad Rawiller
Form: 0111×1
Barrier: 6
$10 at William Hill is a good price for a runner which has looked special this year.
The Bryce Heys-trained sprinter won three consecutive races last preparation, including a handicap win on this track, and it fired fresh up last start when beating Kaepernick at Randwick.
The son of Thorn Park is a serious sprinter with a great talent to find the line, but can it win in this class? It hasn’t been tested against some of the best mature sprinters in Australia and the $3.30 to place at William Hill might be the better betting option.
11. English – $12
Trainer: Waterhouse/Bott
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Form: 31×547
Barrier: 1
We were excited to see what English could do this season, but that excitement didn’t last long. The four-year-old won the Group 1 All Aged Stakes to end its previous campaign and it looked to have many more wins in store, but it hasn’t been close in three runs since.
It ran fifth in The Shorts as the $2.25 favourite before running fourth in the Premiere Stakes at Randwick. It didn’t fire in the Manikato Stakes and it’s hard to see a turnaround in form in this.
12. Sheidel – $13
Trainer: Hayes/Dabernig
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Form: 7×4211
Barrier: 9
Sheidel is a 14-time winner from 24 starts which made it back-to-back wins last time out. The five-year-old mare won narrowly over Wild Rain at Flemington last start and although this is a much harder field, it has winning claims.
Drawing barrier nine should allow it to stride forward on the outside of runners and be tough to run down near the line.
$13 at CrownBet is worth taking a shot at.
Darley Classic betting tips
1st – The Quarterback ($6.50 at Sportsbet)
2nd – Our Boy Malachi
3rd – Spieth
4th – Sheidel
With the experience The Quarterback has done the Flemington straight, we couldn’t overlook its chances of winning again. It has had a good season to date and it has clearly improved throughout the winter.
Punters usually get a good price with The Quarterback and this Saturday is no different.
We included Our Boy Malachi for second after its blistering win last start and Spieth goes in because it’s a proven winner this season.
Sheidel should give punters a sight and with a great winning record, another win wouldn’t be off the cards.